Market Notes-Q1 2026: Signals Worth Watching

2026 is already off to a running start, and we are barely one week in.
What follows are several areas I will be paying close attention to as the year unfolds.

1. Housing Market

President Trump has long been vocal about Making America Great Again, and in 2026 his initial focus appears to be large institutional investment firms operating in the housing market. As he has stated, “people live in homes, not corporations” (Trump, 2026). While this position is rhetorically compelling, it raises important questions about the actual role institutional investors play in current housing market dynamics. Specifically, how significant are these entities as contributors to housing affordability challenges, and what economic consequences might arise from restricting or banning their participation given the country’s broader financial context?

2. Global Affairs

With the recent withdrawal of the United States from more than 60 international organizations, questions have emerged regarding the potential implications for the global political and economic landscape. The United States has historically occupied a central role in global governance, and this decision once again places the country at the forefront of international discourse. According to the administration, this action does not represent a retreat from global engagement, but rather a strategic decision to discontinue funding for organizations that support “agendas contrary to our values, or waste taxpayer dollars by purporting to address important issues without achieving meaningful results” (White House, 2026).

This development prompts several considerations: Will other nations follow suit? Could this strain relationships with long-standing allies or disrupt existing trade partnerships abroad? I am particularly interested in how these shifts will influence diplomatic alignment and international cooperation moving forward.

3. Income Taxes

As tax season approaches and households prepare to meet their federal obligations, this year may represent a pivotal moment in U.S. tax policy. Representative Buddy Carter (R-GA) has introduced the FairTax Act of 2025 (H.R. 25), legislation that proposes eliminating the federal income tax and replacing it with a federal consumption-based sales tax.

While this approach is not unprecedented, the United States remains the only OECD country without a federally imposed value-added tax or comparable national consumption tax (OECD, 2024). For context, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is “a forum in which the governments of 37 democracies with market-based economies collaborate to establish policy standards that promote sustainable economic growth” (U.S. Department of State).

It is also worth noting that consumption tax rates in other advanced economies are generally lower than the rate proposed under the FairTax Act. This raises a critical policy question: Would such a shift genuinely increase disposable income across households, or would it disproportionately burden lower-income populations that already allocate a higher percentage of income toward consumption?


None of these areas offer clear answers yet, but they are the ones I’ll be watching most closely as the year unfolds. Over time, it should become clearer which of these concerns truly shape the landscape and which simply felt louder in the moment.


Sources & Resources

Ambrojhae B. Jones

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